This represents the biggest source of uncertainty. Beyond the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blockaded, Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities sustained severe damage and will take 3–5 years to fully repair. Though a reconciliation has been reached, flare-ups remain possible. Should the situation stabilize and supply recover, freight rates may plunge rapidly. If conflicts reignite, supply shortages will widen, driving rates to a second peak. In the event of prolonged hostilities, routing around the Cape of Good Hope will become standard practice. Relevant enterprises are advised to lock in Cape of Good Hope space in advance and build a minimum 10–14 day transit buffer into order delivery schedules.

June to August marks the planting inventory period for Southern Hemisphere nations including Brazil and Argentina, the world’s peak procurement window for pesticide trade volumes. Brazilian purchase orders are expected to roll out in June, with a buying peak hitting July–August that will set the price benchmark for the second half of the year. These three months will likely see the highest freight rates and tightest container availability on South American lanes all year. Enterprises should closely monitor carrier rate adjustments, peak season surcharges (PSS) and emergency bunker surcharges (EBS), and arrange shipments rationally.

On May 14, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released a new registration system exclusively for export-only pesticides, referred to as the EX Registration System. Under the old rules, formal domestic pesticide registration certificates (PD Certificates) were rigidly tied to EX Certificates. To export a product, manufacturers first needed a PD Certificate for that exact formulation in China, bound by domestic concentration and formula ratios, barring customised products tailored for overseas markets. The new regulation redefines PD Certificates as a corporate qualification credential. Enterprises only need one valid domestic PD Certificate to apply for EX Registration for other formulations not registered domestically, free from domestic formula constraints. This policy liberalises export restrictions and encourages finished pesticide formulation exports. Premium domestic production capacity will prioritise high-priced overseas markets, potentially tightening domestic supply structurally and accelerating industry consolidation among small and medium-sized manufacturers. To date, China holds 1,168 valid EX pesticide registrations, with export momentum remaining robust.

The European Council agenda dated June 18 targeted China directly, with tougher trade defence instruments set to be implemented imminently. The EU’s proposed safeguard measures will impose additional tariffs on chemical products with surging import volumes, putting Chinese pesticides at a structural cost disadvantage of 6%–13%. Additionally, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially entered into force in 2026, covering fertilisers and select pesticide intermediates. Coupled with the EU’s continuous tightening of pesticide Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) and withdrawal of registrations for certain active ingredients, the comprehensive export cost of Chinese pesticides bound for Europe is rising systematically. Pesticide cargo volumes on European lanes will face downward pressure in Q3. Exporters must track EU anti-dumping investigations and quota adjustments targeting agrochemical products closely.

Based on the above analysis, enterprises should adopt a prudent core strategy for June–August 2026: maintain operational flexibility, rationalise inventory levels and wait for clear market signals.

Space to Brazil’s Santos and Rio Grande is the tightest year-round. Clients may prioritise premium loading/unloading slots such as MSC Diamond Space and CMA Priority Space; standard dangerous goods pesticide containers face high risk of rolling. Split shipments strategically: ship small volumes in June to ease extreme space shortages in July and August. Build a 12–14 day transit buffer and proactively inform buyers of extended lead times to avoid breach-of-contract claims.

July typhoon season brings frequent port omissions and erratic transit schedules. While freight rates hold steady, pesticide demand stays strong with limited spare capacity. Book space for rice pesticide shipments at least 7 days in advance; avoid last-minute bookings before cut-off.

Full Cape of Good Hope routing combined with congestion at Northwest European ports causes average transit delays of 7–10 days. Pesticide dangerous goods shippers should confirm war risk surcharge scales with carriers upfront. Split cargo across multiple sailings instead of consolidating large volumes into single containers to mitigate full-ship rollover risks.

West Coast rates have surged over 100% since February, while East Coast rates rose due to Panama Canal transit restrictions. Congestion on inland rail networks leads to prolonged port dwell times. Split large consignments of glyphosate and chlorothalonil across ports: allocate partial volumes to the US West Coast and a smaller share to the East Coast to relieve congestion at single terminals.

Multiple carriers have restricted acceptance of dangerous goods bound for the Middle East, with transit efficiency deteriorating in Dubai and Dammam. Select alternative hub cities for pesticide shipments to the Middle East.

Waiting times have lengthened for Africa’s Durban and Mombasa. Schedule bookings roughly 15 days in advance for all non-urgent orders.

Most pesticides are classified as hazardous chemicals. Carriers enforce stricter hazardous goods screening amid ongoing Red Sea and Middle East tensions:

Submit all MSDS, dangerous goods declaration and UN number documentation for review at least one week prior to cut-off to avoid cargo rollovers caused by incomplete paperwork.

Prioritise carriers offering dedicated agrochemical hazardous goods lanes; standard sailings frequently cut hazardous goods container allocations first.

The current pesticide market is trapped in a stalemate underpinned by elevated cost levels and divergent demand trends. Freight rates face upward pressure from skyrocketing bunker fuel costs, permanent Cape routing and layered peak season surcharges, with no clear peak in sight in the short term.

Q3 overlaps the South American procurement peak and global shipping high season, concentrating risks including tight space, extended transit times and restricted dangerous goods acceptance.

We advise clients to prioritise stability with ample transit buffers. Rationalise shipment splitting, closely monitor surcharge fluctuations and evaluate multimodal transport alternatives. Secure bookings for non-urgent orders as early as possible, and track delivery lead times and logistics costs in real time to navigate the high-rate market and achieve stable operations.